Josh’s New Years Prediction for 2007

December 31, 2006 in digital video news by Josh

Here at DVcreators.net, we use WinXP, OS X, and Linux boxes, depending on the purpose, without prejudice.

However, after a "white paper" I just read, I am definitely buying Apple stock on Jan 3.

The paper, a dry, pictureless but very informative and cleverly written tome called "A Cost Analysis of Windows Vista Content Protection", describes troubles with the Content Protection specification of Vista, Microsoft’s next operating system.

Here is the "Executive Executive Summary":

"The Vista Content Protection specification could very well constitute the longest suicide note in history."


I can imagine Jobs chuckling with delight.

The document contains many troubling things for digital media creators who plan to upgrade to Vista:

 - Disabling of Functionality
 - Indirect Disabling of Functionality
 - Decreased Playback Quality
 - Elimination of Open-source Hardware Support
 - Elimination of Unified Drivers
 - Denial-of-Service via Driver Revocation
 - Increased Hardware Costs
 - Increased Cost due to Requirement to License Unnecessary Third-party IP
 - Unnecessary CPU Resource Consumption

Ostensibly, professional media applications, like editing, motion graphics and audio applications from Adobe, Avid/DigiDesign, Discreet and many other Windows developers will somehow be able to bypass or disable this protection scheme, but it might be such a laborious process that some developers will lean towards OS X or Linux, or, if cross-platform, drop the Vista version.

Or, Microsoft could come to their senses and greatly modify or abandon this spec.

But, if the predictions made in this document are true, it could make Vista systems more expensive than equivalent performance OS X systems, due to needing more powerful CPUs and GPUs, and faster busses to provide the same speed, meaning the 50% of digital media pros who use Windows might have to re-evaluate to cut costs when it comes time to upgrade their hardware.

Historically, digital media pros who use Windows systems do so either because of Windows-only software or because they were more cost-effective.

Like you, I believe digital media is the future, and so a mutiny to OS X by digital media pros will create a "sea change" that subtly, imperceptibly, will tilt the platform away from Vista.

I just did a little research to find Apple’s market share in 2006, and came up with this:

Apple U.S. Market Share:
1Q 2006: 3.5%
2Q 2006: 4.6%
3Q 2006: 6.1%

Is that a trend?

So I will go out on a limb, and make the prediction, as long as the Vista Content Protection spec stays mostly unaltered, that Apple tops 9% U.S. market share by Dec 31 2007.

Here’s wishing you all a very happy and safe New Years!

The gang at DVcreators.net

Related posts:

  1. Josh interviewed on digitalproductionbuzz.com
  2. Apple offers Multi-picture Deal promo
  3. Mac Pro shipping
  4. Tax Credits for Filmmakers – State by State
  5. Apple Introduces Boot Camp

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